Does Obama Have a Demographic Firewall? Part III: Whites
In the first post of this multi-part series on Obama’s potential demographic firewall, we noted that if non-white voters participate and vote as they did in 2008, a GOP victory would require historic...
View ArticleRomney’s Challenge: Close The White Gender and Education Gaps
If non-white turnout and support for Obama approach or exceed 2008 levels, Romney will be forced to compensate with unprecedented numbers of white voters. Although such a feat is far from impossible,...
View ArticleThe Demographic Contours of the 2012 Election
Over the last week, 8,000 words were committed to outlining the demographic contours of the upcoming general election campaign. Presumably, I’m the only person who has read all 8,000 words, let alone...
View ArticleThe Polls In Arizona
Obama holds a relatively straight forward, albeit challenging, path to victory in Arizona: at least hold the 2008 white voters who supported Obama over a moderate home-state alternative; win the...
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Gay Marriage, Education, and White Voters In North Carolina
With Obama all but assured an overwhelming share of the African American vote, the political consequences of Obama’s decision to endorse gay marriage largely hinges on white voters. On balance, North...
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